Choctaw, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

363
FXUS64 KOUN 271044
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
544 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

 - Slight chance for storms this afternoon and early evening
   across southeast Oklahoma.

 - Dangerous heat continues into the middle of the week.

 - Increased rain chances and cooler temperatures may return
   towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Hot and humid conditions will continue today with a mid-level
ridge persisting across southern and southeastern U.S. Oklahoma
and north Texas will be on the eastern edge of a low-level thermal
ridge that will allow temperatures to rise once again into the
mid 90s to low 100s deg F.

Precipitable water values and dew points are forecast to be lower
today with less of a tropical air mass in place. As a result,
forecast soundings indicate a little deeper mixing--especially
across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas. The lower dew
points are expected to result in lower heat indices than
yesterday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for areas that are
most likely to experience heat indices at 105 deg F or higher.

Convective coverage should be lower today than yesterday with the
relatively drier air in place. Forecast soundings indicate a
little more convective inhibition between 800 and 700 mb. The
exception is across southeast Oklahoma, where there is still a low
chance (~10% to 20%) of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
due to higher dewpoints resulting in little or no convective
inhibition. Elsewhere, the chance for showers/thunderstorms is
less than 10%.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Hotter weather is expected Monday and Tuesday as the center of
the mid-level ridge retrogrades to the west and becomes centered
across the Southern Plains.

The low-level thermal ridge is forecast to strengthen with rising
850 mb temperatures. As a result, high temperatures should
increase a couple degrees (on average)--ranging from the mid 90s
to low 100s deg. Therefore, a larger part of the area will likely
need a Heat Advisory for Monday. Tuesday will be similar with
perhaps a little lower dew points. However, this might be offset
by a little higher air temperatures. Therefore, another Heat
Advisory will likely be needed Tuesday for parts of the area. Rain
chances will be limited/near zero.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

The consensus among deterministic models and the mean of ensemble
members is the ridge will continue to strengthen through at least
through Wednesday. As a result, Wednesday will likely be a hot
day across the entire area with highs in the upper 90s to mid 100s
deg F.

By late Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, the ridge may
retrograde far enough to the west to place the Southern Plains
into northwest or northerly flow aloft. This synoptic-scale
pattern would allow mesoscale convective complexes (MCSs) and
effective, convectively-reinforced cold fronts to advance
southward as shortwave troughs rotate around the northeast
periphery of the ridge.

As a result, there is chance of showers and thunderstorms
beginning Wednesday night through Saturday. Initially, showers and
thunderstorms might be confined across northern Oklahoma late
Wednesday and Thursday. Therefore, Thursday will likely still be a
hot day for most of the area. By Friday into Saturday, the chance
of showers and thunderstorms expands southward across most of the
area.

Forecast highs trend lower toward Friday and Saturday with the
lowest highs forecast on Saturday. Probabilistic guidance
indicates a 50 to 80% chance of high temperatures below 90 deg F
across the northern half of Oklahoma (with the 80% across far
north central Oklahoma, near the Kansas border).

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Very low storm chances will exist this afternoon in southeast
Oklahoma - low enough that carrying a mention in the DUA TAF was
not justified, but worth mentioning within this AFD. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected. Winds will increase from the south
this afternoon to at or above 10 knots, with some spots seeing
gusts up to 20 knots. VFR conditions will continue tonight.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  96  78  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         99  76 100  75 /   0  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  98  77 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           99  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     97  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         97  77  99  75 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-024>026-029>032-042-043-047-
     048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...04