Choctaw, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

329
FXUS64 KOUN 272150
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
450 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 442 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

- Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms
  through next week, with highest chances Monday and Tuesday.

- Humid conditions continue, with heat indices near 100 degrees
  most afternoons.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A very humid airmass remains in place across our area today. With an
MCV and a surface trough draped across the western part of our area
and broken sunshine peeking through ahead of them, rather robust
storm coverage is probable again today. The severe risk is even
lower today than it was yesterday thanks to greater mid-level
moisture, but sporadic hydro issues and water-laden downbursts are
possible. The likeliest corridor for storms will be central and
southwest Oklahoma this afternoon, translating eastward into south
central Oklahoma this evening.

Similar to last night, a secondary surge in shower/storm coverage is
possible late tonight along the new/reinforced MCV, potentially near
central Oklahoma. Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain well
into the 70s.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Height rises will occur in the 24 hours between now and tomorrow
afternoon, leaving the weak area of troughing a distant memory
(barring any MCVs, of course). Given the overall moisture content of
the airmass, even flat-out ridging won`t fully bar storm chances
tomorrow, but it will lower them more to the 20 percent range
instead of the 40-50 range. Height rises will also usher in
increasing temperatures with highs getting into the low-to-mid 90s.
Not necessarily heat risk thresholds, but the relative comfort of
this past few days won`t be there.

The ridge will finish its translation back to its normal position
west of us during the day on Sunday, putting us in the familiar zone
with weak northwest flow aloft. A frontal boundary/surface trough
looks like it will be set up in southern Kansas. Storms and cloud
cover are probable along it, but to its south in our area we will
likely see a low-level thermal ridge and some hot temperatures
(potentially near 100 in northern Oklahoma).

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The subtropical ridge is forecast to retreat to the southwestern
US early next week, placing our area in weak northwest flow
aloft. This will allow for a weak front to push southward into the
area which will serve as a focus for more widespread convective
coverage Monday into Tuesday. Severe risk will continue to be
generally low owing to weak wind shear, but with plenty of
instability and a front in the area, Monday may offer a
relatively greater risk for a few strong to severe storms compared
to the days preceding it. At least isolated rain/storm chances
then look to continue through much of next week for at least parts
of the area, with highs generally remaining in the low 90s.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 442 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Localized convective impacts will remain possible through early
evening at the south and southeastern terminals...from roughly
KOUN to KDUA to KSPS. The atmosphere will remain quite moist
through the period as a deep sub-tropical moisture plume lingers
over the region, and there are some signals for localized fog by
sunrise. The probability of visibility restrictions in fog
currently seems low, so will not introduce into the TAFs, however
convective allowing models do suggest that weak forcing/ascent
will produce another round of convection by early Saturday morning
that will again impact aviation from KPNC and KSWO south-
southwestward toward KLAW and KSPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  91  74  93 /  30  30  10  10
Hobart OK         71  96  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  74  95  77  97 /  30  10  10   0
Gage OK           69  94  71  97 /  20  10  20  10
Ponca City OK     70  91  72  95 /  40  30  40  20
Durant OK         75  93  76  95 /  30  30   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...20